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Why I use scenarios in business plans and strategies

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Graphic showing three different predictions on the global insuretech market, which vary by 20%

The global InsureTech market is expected to reach $172.6 billion by 2030.

Or is it?

During research for a market report, I came across half a dozen primary sources predicting the end of decade growth for the insurance technology market. Unsurprisingly, there were as many variations as there were reports. This is inevitable as research agencies will use their own assumptions and models to get to the numbers they publish. The three I chose for this graphic were simply ones that sat towards the top, middle and bottom of the ranges.

Whenever I look at predictions for modeling purposes, I aim for a mix rather than settle on the one that looks best. My reasons?

My suggestion is if you're putting together a business plan, design your models to cope with the likely, best and worst case outcomes from your research. Treat the most optimistic set of data as the best case, the worst as your worst, and either pick the one in the middle as your most likely, or average them out. If you can't find a trio to work with, adding and subtracting 10% is a reasonable starting point until you can find better numbers.

My name is Ross Hori

I'm a freelance writer, designer and photographer. By day I create articles, features and reports. At night I take photos and write fiction.

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